A Soviet-era spacecraft that has remained in Earth’s orbit for over five decades is expected to make an uncontrolled descent back to Earth within the coming days. The spacecraft, known as Kosmos 482, was originally launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union’s Venus exploration program but failed to escape Earth’s orbit due to a rocket malfunction.

Experts predict that the half-ton spacecraft, built to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus, may survive its fiery reentry through Earth’s atmosphere. The titanium-covered probe, measuring approximately 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter, is expected to fall at an estimated speed of 150 mph (242 kph) if it remains intact.  However, the likelihood of it striking a populated area is considered extremely low, with most projections indicating that it will land over water or in a remote region.

The exact time and location of Kosmos 482’s reentry remain uncertain due to variables such as solar activity and the spacecraft’s deteriorated condition. Scientists tracking the event estimate that the reentry could occur as early as Saturday morning, U.S. Eastern Time, but forecasts continue to fluctuate.

Kosmos 482 was originally intended to land on Venus as part of the Soviet Union’s Venera program, which successfully sent multiple probes to the planet. However, due to a rocket failure, the spacecraft was stranded in orbit around Earth, where it has remained for 53 years. While most of its components fell back to Earth within a decade, this final piece has continued to orbit until now.

Under international space law, any surviving wreckage from Kosmos 482 will legally belong to Russia, as per a United Nations treaty governing space debris.

Despite the dramatic nature of the event, experts emphasize that the risk to human life is minimal. “The odds of it slamming into a populated area are infinitesimally small,” said Marcin Pilinski, a scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder.

As global space agencies and independent trackers monitor the spacecraft’s descent, Kosmos 482’s return to Earth marks the end of a decades-long orbital journey—one that began with the Soviet Union’s ambitious efforts to explore Venus.

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